| Abstract |
The prospects for geothermal development in the new century are evaluated on basis of trends in the last three decades. The potential role of geothermal energy is analysed in view of the increased emphasis on reduction of greenhouse gases following the United Nations conferences on the environment in Rio (1991) and Kyoto (1997). A comparison is made of geothermal energy with other new and renewable energy sources. Geothermal energy, with its proven technology and abundant resources, can make a significant contribution towards reducing the emission of greenhouse gases worldwide. It is necessary, however, that governments implement a legal and institutional framework and fiscal instruments allowing geothermal resources to compete with conventional energy systems. Assuming the worldwide annual growth rate to continue at 9%, the electricity production may reach some 130 TWh in 2010, and 320 TWh in 2020. Assuming the annual growth rate for direct use to continue at 6%, the energy production may reach some 80 TWh in 2010, and 140 TWh in 2020. Recent developments in the application of the ground source heat pump has made it possible for all countries to use the heat of the earth for heating and/or cooling, as appropriate.This suggests the estimated growth rate of 6% to be a conservative forecasting value for direct use. If the recent escalation in world oil prices (from 10 USD/barrel in February 1999 to 24 USD in September 1999) continues, the growth rate for both electric and direct use of geothermal energy is likely to increase significantly. |