| Title | Lifetime and Energy Prediction of Geothermal Systems: Uncertainty Analysis in Highly Heterogeneous Geothermal Reservoirs ( Netherlands) |
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| Authors | Sanaz SAEID, Yang WANG, Alexandros DANIILIDIS, Mark KHAIT, David BRUHN, Denis VOSKOV |
| Year | 2020 |
| Conference | World Geothermal Congress |
| Keywords | uncertainty analysis, computational efficiency, Low-enthalpy |
| Abstract | A good static and dynamic reservoir characterisation is key for an accurate prediction of the lifetime and energy of geothermal systems. However, deterministic reservoir model is not achievable mostly due to the lack of subsurface data and information. This can cause inefficient reservoir design and management and might lead to decreased economic output. An extensive uncertainty analysis of the physical and operational parameters can be invaluable in enhancing our understanding of a reservoir, hence increasing the prediction accuracy of its energy and lifetime. Nevertheless, uncertainty quantification by means of large simulation ensembles on a highly heterogeneous reservoir is always challenging and computationally is very expensive. In this work, the Delft Advanced Research Terra Simulator (DARTS) is used which can deliver fast and accurate production forecast of geothermal reservoirs. DARTS provides high performance due to the Operator Based Linearization (OBL) approach which results to short runtimes. This makes it efficient for running an ensemble of simulation models on complex geological models for uncertainty quantification. In this paper a geothermal field in the Netherlands is studied. The field consists of two reservoir layers; one is highly heterogeneous and the other is highly channelized. The uncertainty analysis identifies the most important parameters and their effect on energy and lifetime predictions of this geothermal field, while a comingled production from both geological formations is planned. |