| Abstract |
Most volcanic arcs and active rifts around the world host producing geothermal systems. Many undiscovered and/or undeveloped systems remain in each of these areas, including magmatic-heated systems, amagmatic extension-related systems, and blind resources lacking active surface manifestations in both types of settings. However, not all volcanic centers or extensional terranes have the same geothermal potential. For example, even when high heat flow is present, permeability is commonly a limiting factor to resource development. A tool recently adapted for the geothermal industry is play fairway analysis, which calculates the regional probability of power-capable resources based on the spatial coincidence of key geologic conditions. In a geothermal setting, these key geologic conditions are heat, permeability, and fluids. Higher enthalpy systems also benefit from suitable cap rock. These parameters can be assessed through multiple geologic, geochemical, and geophysical data sets and integrated quantitatively to produce a single geothermal play fairway map. Potential input data sets include but are not limited to: 1) tectonic setting; 2) structural setting; 3) faults attributed by recency of rupture and slip rate; 3) geodetic crustal stain models; 5) gravity; 6) earthquake distribution; 7) thermal models; 8) geochemistry from springs, wells, and fumaroles; 9) temperature from springs, wells, and fumaroles; 10) fumarole size and type; and 11) age of volcanism. Recent play fairway studies have been completed for volcanic arcs and the dominantly amagmatic, extensional Great Basin region, USA, but have yet to be applied to the East African Rift System (EARS). Previous estimates of total geothermal resource capacity in the EARS is ~20 GWe, but only three areas are currently in production as of 2015: Olkaria and Eburru in Kenya, and Aluto-Langano in Ethiopia for a total installed capacity of <0.7 GWe. Many more volcanic centers host potential resources. In addition, amagmatic and/or blind systems also have potential in the EARS. Play fairway analysis can highlight regions most prospective for geothermal resource development, help identify locations prospective for undiscovered resources, prioritize overall exploration and development efforts, and refine estimates for total undeveloped resource potential. |