| Abstract |
The successful implementation of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) technology has the potential to dramatically expand both the magnitude and spatial extent of geothermal energy production, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been working to improve methodology and conduct a new EGS resource assessment for the United States. However, a number of outstanding scientific and technical issues must be resolved in order to ensure the accuracy and reliability of this assessment. Among these are determining those conditions under which it is possible to replicate the high average permeability (approximately 10-14 to 10-12 m2) characteristic of natural hydrothermal reservoirs, evaluating the likely heterogeneity of fracture permeability within EGS reservoirs and its influence on the geothermal recovery factor, Rg, which is defined as the ratio of produced thermal energy to the thermal energy contained in the stimulated volume comprising the reservoir, and improving estimates of temperature in the upper crust to better quantify the thermal energy available at those depths viable for EGS reservoir creation. Models for the development of fracture permeability from the shear slip along pre-existing natural fractures induced by hydraulic stimulation indicate that production from EGS reservoirs will be sensitive to the influence of effective stress and rock properties on the processes of shear fracture formation and closure. Calibration of model parameters with results from EGS field experiments and demonstration projects suggests that sufficient permeability may be difficult to attain through shear stimulation at depths greater than approximately 6 km, particularly in regions characterized by high normal stress on pre-existing faults and fractures. In addition, the expected heterogeneity of fracture permeability within EGS reservoirs may limit Rg to values on the order of 0.05 to 0.1, which is at the lower end of the observed range for producing natural geothermal reservoirs. Although there are significant gaps in the spatial coverage of heat flow measurements in much of the United States and some uncertainty in the estimation of thermal properties at depth, analysis of the existing thermal data indicates that even with the possible constraints outlined above, large areas of the western United States will be suitable for EGS development. However, this preliminary interpretation is compromised by the limited number of cases in which model predictions can be compared to laboratory or in situ data. The key challenge for improved EGS resource assessments is acquiring and interpreting comprehensive laboratory and field data that can provide quantitative constraints on the recovery of heat from EGS reservoirs in diverse settings. |