| Abstract |
In order to develop a true understanding of the long-term costsof emerging energy technologies, it is important to assess costs on the basis of both the technology’s current status as well as a likely future state based on innovations and technology advancements. We are currently conducting such an assessment for geothermal energy technology with particular emphasis on Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). In this paper, we will report our efforts to forecast the implications of innovation and their impact on future cost of power from EGS. Specifically, we have conducted a detailed assessment of technology advancements and innovations across drilling, well stimulation, and power plants. Leveraging patent data, paper literature, and detailed expert elicitations, we have inventoried a number of innovations and new technologies ranging in maturity from conceptual to commercially proven albeit in complementary industries such as oil and gas. Further, we have developed estimates of improvements along performance and cost metrics for each of these innovations. Finally, we have used a number of analytical models including the U.S. Department of Energy’s Geothermal Electric Technologies Evaluation Model (GETEM) to assess the levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) for a series of cases with varying levels of technology improvements. Preliminary results show that cost reductions range from 20%- 50% for drilling, 5%-30% for well construction, 20%-40% for well stimulation, and 10%-38% for power plants. Based on these improvements, the LCOE for an illustrative EGS system can be reduced up to 40% from a reference case. Our paper will report additional details and cases from this on-going work. |