| Abstract |
Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan aims for net-zero emissions by 2060. Currently, it faces the dual challenge of decarbonising its energy sector and addressing energy poverty. Geothermal energy, with its reliable baseload capacity and widespread availability, presents a sustainable, equitable, and secure alternative to fossil fuels and traditional biomass, comprising approximately 75% of Nigeria’s largely unsustainable energy mix. However, geothermal energy development in Nigeria remains in its infancy, despite existing surface manifestations and relatively high geothermal gradients, with some locations reporting values as high as 44°C/km. This study employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to assess the geothermal resources and surface demand across Nigeria's 36 states, including the capital, Abuja, to identify which states hold the most promising geothermal resources. Each Nigerian state is ranked based on its geothermal energy potential, utilising the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method, both of which incorporate expert opinion. Our analysis looks at four main types of geothermal reservoirs (like Precambrian crystalline Basement Complex, Jurassic Younger Granites, Cretaceous sedimentary basins, and Tertiary/Quaternary volcanics), different levels of heat resources (for heating, cooling, and generating power), and how energy demand changes over time. Initial results suggest conventional geothermal resources are variably available across Nigeria for direct use, including for heating/cooling, agriculture, or power generation. Meanwhile, we evaluate how geothermal resources can support Nigeria's net-zero ambitions using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) modelling and energy use projections to 2060. |