| Title | Geothermal Potential Catalog Update for the Banovska kotlina Basin, Slovakia: Estimating the Total Thermal, Sustainable and Developable Geothermal Potential Combining Probabilistic Resource Assessment Approach with Real Production Data |
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| Authors | Branislav Fri?ovský, Ladislav Vizi, Klement Fordinál, Marta Kalabová, Radovan ?ernák, Jana Fri?ovská |
| Year | 2026 |
| Conference | World Geothermal Congress |
| Keywords | |
| Abstract | A novelized geothermal energy catalog for Slovakia finalized in 2024 answers a need to approach for not only a total thermal potential assessment, but its limits and risks in a future development too. The case of BKB is more urgent because of prioritized carbon-neutral energy transition of the whole Upper Nitra region off the coal-mining district, e.g. through the EU granted Just Transition Fund. The TTP is assessed applying Monte Carlo simulation to the USGS volume method along with regionalized recovery factor; conditioned through geological and geothermal models. The sustainable geothermal potential is understood as amount of energy at a balance between the energy stored and withdrawn, as based on reserve capacity ratio. Involving production history optimizes for developable potential, i.e. amount of geothermal energy available for development with respect to the sustainable reservoir capacity and reduction of risks of depletion under real production conditions. Both, the short- (40 years) and sustainable- (100 years) production periods are considered. With a recovery factor varying R0 = 0.031 – 0.152, the TTP is assessed for 31 / 13 MWt respectively. At resource capacity ratio of 0.5, the sustainable reservoir capacity accounts then 16 / 6 MWt according to desired production period. Involving the 2011 – 2023 production history and cumulative thermal output of 0.28 – 1.1 MWt with a normalized mean of 0.59 MWt, the developable potential is likely up to 14 / 5 MWt at low risk of thermal depletion. This recalls significant capacity available for development compared to recent situation. |