| Title | An uncertainty quantification modelling approach for assessing the resource and planning the development of low enthalpy geothermal fields |
|---|---|
| Authors | Joris Popineau, Ken Dekkers, Theo Renaud, Ryan Tonkin, Jeremy Riffault, John O’Sullivan, Michael |
| Year | 2026 |
| Conference | World Geothermal Congress |
| Keywords | |
| Abstract | Subsurface geological systems employed in low-enthalpy geothermal applications, such as conventional doublet systems, thermal energy storage, or unconventional approaches like Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), are increasingly being explored as low-carbon, resilient solutions for industrial and urban heating, and are behind the power generation using ORC technology for power hungry industries such as data centres. Large sedimentary basins often offer favorable conditions for such developments, either by harnessing existing geothermal resources or by integrating external heat sources from industrial activities (e.g., thermal waste, data centers, hospitals). While the general procedures for geothermal field development—such as surface investigations, drilling, and infrastructure deployment—are well established, project decisions at each stage rely heavily on the interpretation of available data. Consequently, the integration of modelling tools that incorporate uncertainty quantification is essential for informed decision-making and risk mitigation. This study introduces a three-dimensional reservoir modelling framework that leverages uncertainty quantification to optimize resource utilization and guide the selection of development scenarios that are both technically viable and environmentally sustainable. The methodology is applied to a real-world case study, exploring variations in geological configurations, petrophysical properties, well designs, and fluid management strategies (e.g., flow rates, temperatures, and operational durations). The resulting spectrum of outcomes provides quantitative insights to support stakeholders in addressing economic, social, and technical challenges. |