| Abstract |
Faults and fractures are key structural features that influence fluid flow and connectivity in geothermal reservoirs. However, accurately mapping these features and assessing their properties in the subsurface remains a significant challenge, resulting in major uncertainties for geothermal exploration and development. Conventionally, stochastic methods have been used to model fracture networks and their properties, relying on statistical distributions and assumptions about fracture geometry and density. In this study, we test an innovative process-based forward fracture modelling approach that utilises the geological history and tectonic deformation events of a given region to simulate the nucleation, growth, and propagation of fractures. The open-source code called Dynamic Fracture Model (DFM) Generator simulates the evolution of stress and strain over time to generate fracture networks constrained by geomechanical principles rather than random stochastic distributions. We apply this approach to investigate the fractured Jurassic and Triassic reservoirs in the Eclépens region of the Swiss Molasse Basin that are potential targets for heat and power production. The model predictions are validated using diverse fracture data, including borehole image logs, outcrop analogues, and advanced seismic attributes such as Thin Fault Likelihood. Upon successful validation against field-scale case studies, this fracture modelling approach holds the potential to de-risk subsurface investigations and could revolutionize geothermal and broader geological exploration studies. |