| Title | Harnessing Geothermal Infrastructure for Volcanic Early Warning |
|---|---|
| Authors | Larus Thorvaldsson, Lilja Magnusdottir |
| Year | 2026 |
| Conference | World Geothermal Congress |
| Keywords | |
| Abstract | HS Orka operates a geothermal power plant in Svartsengi, located near the Sundhnúkur crater row, where a volcanic sequence has been ongoing since late 2023. This situation has presented both operational challenges and unique opportunities for geophysical monitoring. Since 2018, a pressure and temperature logger has provided near real-time readings from a depth of 850 m in a dedicated monitoring well. On November 10th, 2023, the logger recorded a sharp pressure increase coinciding with a major dike intrusion. Similar pressure anomalies have preceded all eight eruptions in the current sequence. The first eruption began on December 18th, 2023, prompting HS Orka’s resource management team to develop an early warning system based on these pressure anomalies. The system now plays a vital role in eruption forecasting, providing civil protection authorities with lead times ranging from 25 minutes to over 4 hours, which is crucial for public safety and emergency response. This study presents a comparative analysis of the pressure signals observed before each eruption, examining the spatiotemporal dynamics of hydrological and magmatic activity. The findings offer new insights into how subsurface pressure changes can serve as reliable precursors to eruptive events. The study demonstrates how existing geothermal infrastructure can be leveraged for real-time natural hazard monitoring, enhancing resilience, improving early warning capabilities, and reducing the societal and economic impacts of volcanic activity. |