| Abstract |
The Longchuan Basin, located in the high-temperature geothermal zone of the Mediterranean-Himalayan region, exhibits significant geothermal potential due to intense tectonic activity and a high heat flow background. However, limited exploration and insufficient data have hindered accurate resource assessment. In this study, reliable heat flow values were obtained through systematic drilling temperature measurements and core thermal property analysis, clarifying the spatial distribution of the basin’s temperature field. Using the Monte Carlo volumetric method, key reservoir parameters such as temperature, thickness, and porosity were modeled to quantify the uncertainty of geothermal resource estimates. Results show an average geothermal gradient of 3.87°C/100 m and surface heat flow ranging from 70 to 90 mW/m². Hydrothermal resource potential is estimated at 9.62 × 10¹⁴ KJ, while hot dry rock resources range from 1.15 × 10¹⁶ KJ to 1.55 × 10¹⁶ KJ. Compared with conventional methods, the Monte Carlo approach effectively captures parameter uncertainty, improving assessment reliability. This study provides a methodological reference for geothermal exploration in under-explored basins with high geothermal potential. |