| Title | Addressing Uncertainties in Geothermal Prospect Assessment: Insights from the Kiejo-Mbaka Field |
|---|---|
| Authors | Mathew Mwangomba |
| Year | 2026 |
| Conference | World Geothermal Congress |
| Keywords | |
| Abstract | Geothermal prospect assessment has garnered increasing attention as the sector grows, driven by the need to build stakeholder confidence and guide investments during exploration and crucial development phases. However, uncertainties are inherent across exploration stages from surface investigations to deep drilling phases. These uncertainties necessitate advanced methodologies that can accommodate variability and incomplete datasets while delivering reliable insights. Among emerging techniques, stochastic approaches such as Monte Carlo Simulation are invaluable in addressing these challenges. By enabling probabilistic evaluations of geothermal power potential, the Monte Carlo Simulation considers diverse input parameters and offers a structured framework for decision-making under conditions of limited data. This study applies both Monte Carlo Simulation and volumetric methods to assess the Kiejo-Mbaka geothermal field, leveraging surface exploration data. Results reveal an estimated power potential of approximately 9.01 MWe using the volumetric method. Monte Carlo simulations provide deeper insights, indicating a most likely power output of 12.9 MWe within a 90% confidence range of 11.2–21.2 MWe. The highest and lowest simulated outputs stand at 30.1 MWe and 7.9 MWe, respectively, with a mean value of 15.1 MWe, reflecting variability within acceptable bounds. These findings highlight the complementary nature of deterministic and probabilistic techniques in geothermal resource assessment. Volumetric methods establish fundamental estimates, while Monte Carlo Simulation improves precision by incorporating uncertainty. The integrated framework enhances stakeholder confidence, supports investment decision-making, and aligns with global efforts to optimize renewable energy deployment for sustainable development. |